and organizations have used the methodology of developing
alternative scenarios for decades. Most often introduced
as a brainstorming or lateral thinking technique, modern
scenario planning has used the presence of technology and
available information to transform itself into a rigorous
decision-making discipline. Sometimes called 'pre-mortem
analysis', a good scenario exercise develops trip wires
and triggers for pre-arranged decisions for a finite combination
of alternative events - allowing management the luxury of
risk management within controlled boundaries. The remaining
issue is the discipline to follow the guidelines of good
The workshop is designed for managers and staff actually
engaged in business planning or oversight of the planning
process. Although the theory is introduced, this is a practical
exercise, with practical examples from companies and organizations.
The workshop will expand participants' toolkits for scenario
planning. The basic areas of concentration will involve
a) the systematic review and challenge of assumptions and
b) the improvement of decision-making with respect to both
rigor and time to implementation.
The underlying theme of the workshop is 'meeting the challenge
of forging a direct link between scenario planning and strategic
decision-making'. This theme is reinforced by matching the
efforts of scenario development with scenario deployment
through an organization, and developing the discipline to
follow through once triggers are met.
1) Securing decision maker involvement
2) Managing the lag between scenario development and payoff
3) Pre-mortem analysis and 'How often to revisit trip wires"
4) Maximizing strategic response capabilities
5) Stress testing - how rigorous and how often
6) Reinforcing organizational commitment
7) Scenario planning and crisis management
The workshop will have a minimum of lecture presentation,
and many small case examples from real world firms and banks,
in particular. Scenario deployment is often used as a risk
management technique, and so the emphasis on risk management
in a real world context will be reinforced with case examples.
Participants will be encouraged to collaborate on examples
they themselves bring from their own firms.
The workshop is two or three days, modular in design (so
it is adaptable when integrated with other management development
efforts) and highly interactive. The case studies are global,
and a selection based upon participant preference of industry
or region may be tailored to the audience.